The forecast model is the
neural-dynamical hybrid coupled model with the
assimilation of the NCEP sea level height anomaly data (Tang and
Hsieh, 2003).
Fig 1 shows our latest forecasts (initialized using data till the end of
March, 2004),
indicating warming in the equatorial Pacific, with a moderate El
Niño forming by the summer of 2004, and reaching its
maximum strength in
December, 2004.
Fig.1 Predicted SSTA of the tropical Pacific. Contour
interval is 0.5 degree Celsius, with positive anomalies indicated by
solid contours, negative anomalies by dashed contours, and zero by thick
contours. Positive anomalies above 1
degree are shaded in red, and negative anomalies below -1 degree are in
green. The zero contour is in purple.