The forecast model is the
neural-dynamical hybrid coupled model with the
assimilation of the NCEP sea level height anomaly data (Tang and
Hsieh, 2003).
Fig 1 shows our latest forecasts (initialized using data till the end of
February, 2004),
indicating that warming in the equatorial Pacific during 2004 will develop into a
moderate El Niño by the fall and winter, then slowly decay in
2005.
Fig.1 Predicted SSTA of the tropical Pacific. Contour
interval is 0.25 degree Celsius, with positive anomalies indicated by
solid contours, negative anomalies by dashed contours, and zero by thick
contours. Positive anomalies above 1
degree are shaded in red, and negative anomalies below -1 degree are in
green. The zero contour is in purple.