The forecast model is the
neural-dynamical hybrid coupled model with the
assimilation of the NCEP sea level height anomaly data (Tang and
Hsieh, 2003).
Fig 1 shows our latest forecasts (initialized using data till the end of
February, 2003),
indicating that the
El Nino warming will continue to decay in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,
with near-normal conditions in the equatorial Pacific lasting from the fall of 2003 till at least the spring
of 2004.
Fig.1 Predicted SSTA of the tropical Pacific. Contour
interval is 0.25 degree Celsius, with positive anomalies indicated by
solid contours, negative anomalies by dashed contours, and zero by thick
contours. Positive anomalies above 1
degree are shaded in red, and negative anomalies below -1 degree are in
green. The zero contour is in purple.