Nonlinear canonical correlation analysis
forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures
Aiming Wu and William W. Hsieh
Using data up to the end of
November, 2003,
forecasts were made with the
nonlinear canonical correlation analysis model
approach. Ensemble-averaged forecasts for the sea surface temperature
anomalies (SSTA) in the Nino3.4 region
at various lead times are shown in Fig.1, showing
warming in 2004, reaching El Niño conditions later in the year. The forecasted SSTA
fields over the tropical Pacific are shown in Fig.2.
Figure 1. The SSTA (in degree Celsius) in the Nino3.4
area (170W-120W,5S-5N) predicted by the ensemble-averaged nonlinear
model at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of lead time (circles), with
observations denoted by the solid line. Tick marks along the abscissa
indicate the January of the given years.
(The postscript file of Fig.1 is also available).
Figure 2. SSTA (in degrees Celsius) predicted by the ensemble-averaged
nonlinear model at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of lead time, corresponding to
the four consecutive seasons starting with
JFM (January, 2004- March, 2004).
The zero contour is shown as a white curve.
(The postscript file of Fig.2 is also available).
Back to [UBC Climate
Prediction Group Home Page]