Using data up to the end of January, 2003, forecasts were made with the nonlinear canonical correlation analysis model approach. Ensemble-averaged forecasts for the SSTA in the Nino3.4 region at various lead times are shown in Fig.1, showing a decaying El Nino warm episode in 2003, returning to near normal conditions by the middle of 2003. The forecasted SSTA fields over the tropical Pacific are shown in Fig.2.

Figure 1. The SST anomalies (SSTA) (in degree Celsius) in the Nino3.4 area (170W-120W,5S-5N) predicted by the ensemble-averaged nonlinear model at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of lead time (circles), with observations denoted by the solid line. Tick marks along the abscissa indicate the January of the given years. (The postscript file of Fig.1 is also available).

Figure 2. SSTA (in degrees Celsius) predicted by the ensemble-averaged nonlinear model at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of lead time, corresponding to the four consecutive seasons starting with MAM (March, 2003- May, 2003). The zero contour is shown as a white curve. (The postscript file of Fig.2 is also available).